There's no way we can possibly avoid a recession: Portfolio manager
Speaking with BNN Bloomberg’s Paul Bagnell on Friday, John Zechner, chairman and founder of J. Zechner Associates, joined prominent economist David Rosenberg in cautioning that a recession is delayed but still very much coming for the U.S. and Canada.
“I don’t see how we can possibly avoid going into a recession,” Zechner said.
He argued that in the last four decades where an inverted yield curve has appeared – a graph that shows when short-term debt has a greater yield than longer term bonds – there has been economic contraction that follows.
“Every single time you’ve had an inversion of the yield curve, you’ve been in a recession afterwards — why would this suddenly be different this time around,” he argued.
Zechner added that the idea of the North American economy becoming less sensitive to interest rates is “absolute nonsense” and reasoned that the delay is merely a reflection of the federal stimulus provided during the pandemic. A sentiment also shared by Rosenberg.
“We’re heading down into this period of sort of low growth, or no growth, that will in retrospect be defined as a recession,” Zechner said.
In this environment, he prefers to take money out of certain stocks as a precaution.
“What do you do when you get a little worried? You take down the value of some of your winners a bit because they’ve become a bigger part of your portfolio,” he explained. Zechner pointed to the technology sector as one area where he has assumed this strategy.
“Stocks look overvalued right now,” he said.